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In a nutshell
- Americans with a college degree live about 11 years longer than those without a high school diploma as of 2019, and this life expectancy gap has grown wider over the past two decades, increasing from 8.2 years in 2000.
- While college graduates gained 2.5 years in life expectancy between 2000-2019, Americans without a high school diploma saw no improvement at all, highlighting growing disparities in health outcomes based on education level.
- Location matters significantly – central Colorado showed high life expectancy across all education levels, while parts of the Southeast, Appalachia, and South Dakota consistently showed lower life expectancy, with education-based gaps being particularly pronounced.
SEATTLE — Americans with college degrees can expect to live nearly 11 years longer than those without a high school diploma, according to new research mapping life expectancy across education levels and counties in the United States. This stark divide has grown wider over the past two decades, painting a concerning picture of how educational opportunities continue to shape health outcomes across the nation.
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, along with collaborators from the National Institutes of Health, conducted the most comprehensive analysis to date examining how education levels influence life expectancy across every U.S. county. Their findings, published in The Lancet Public Health, reveal that Americans’ chances of living into their 80s or beyond increasingly depend not just on where they live, but on how far they went in school.
By analyzing death records and population data for over 3,100 counties between 2000 and 2019, researchers uncovered dramatic disparities. In 2019, college graduates could expect to live to age 84 on average, while those who didn’t complete high school faced a life expectancy of just 73.5 years. This 10.7-year gap represents a significant widening from the 8.2-year difference observed in 2000.
“In the U.S., more formal education often translates to better employment opportunities, including higher-paying jobs that have fewer health risks,” said the study’s senior author and IHME Associate Professor Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, in a statement. “This puts people in a better position to build a healthy life and, when needed, obtain high-quality health care.”
More concerning still, while college graduates saw their life expectancy increase by 2.5 years over the study period, Americans without a high school diploma experienced no gains at all. Those with some college education or a high school diploma fell somewhere in between, with modest improvements of less than a year.
These national averages mask even more extreme disparities at the county level. In some parts of the country, adults without a high school diploma could expect to live only into their late 50s or early 60s — a life expectancy more commonly associated with developing nations. Meanwhile, college graduates in the same counties often lived well into their 80s.
Geography played a significant role in these outcomes. Central Colorado emerged as a bright spot, with relatively high life expectancy across all education levels. In contrast, parts of the Southeast, Appalachia, and South Dakota showed consistently lower life expectancy, with the gap between education levels particularly pronounced.
Some regions defied the national trends. Counties throughout California saw particularly large increases in life expectancy among those without a high school diploma, while most other areas of the country experienced declines. The researchers suggest this may be partially related to California’s large Mexican immigrant population, who tend to have lower education levels but better health outcomes on average.
The study’s findings highlight how educational attainment has become an increasingly powerful predictor of longevity in America. This relationship likely stems from multiple factors: higher education often leads to better-paying jobs, improved access to healthcare, healthier lifestyles, and living conditions more conducive to good health.
While the research doesn’t definitively prove that education directly causes longer life, it reveals how educational opportunities — or the lack thereof — can ripple throughout a person’s lifetime, ultimately influencing their very survival. As these disparities continue to widen, addressing gaps in educational access and quality may be key to reducing health inequities across America.
Paper Summary
Methodology
Researchers analyzed death records from the National Vital Statistics System and population data from multiple sources including the U.S. Census. They looked at four education levels: less than high school, high school graduate (including GED), some college (including associate degrees), and college graduate (including advanced degrees). Using sophisticated statistical models, they estimated age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy for each education level across all U.S. counties from 2000-2019. The analysis accounted for potential errors in death certificate education reporting and changes in how education information was collected over time.
Results
Life expectancy increased by education level: college graduates lived longest (84.2 years in 2019), followed by those with some college (82.1 years), high school graduates (77.3 years), and those without a high school diploma (73.5 years). While college graduates gained 2.5 years of life expectancy from 2000-2019, those without a high school diploma saw no improvement. The gap between highest and lowest education levels grew from 8.2 to 10.7 years. Geographic variations were substantial – in some counties, the gap exceeded 15 years.
Limitations
The research faced several challenges, including potential errors in how education levels were reported on death certificates and changes in education reporting formats over time. Population estimates by education level relied on survey data, introducing some uncertainty. The analysis couldn’t account for differences in education quality or actual learning achieved. The study period ended before COVID-19, which likely exacerbated educational disparities in life expectancy.
Discussion and Takeaways
This research provides the most detailed picture yet of how education shapes longevity in America. The widening gap suggests that the benefits of education for health have grown stronger over time, while those with less education face increasing challenges. The substantial geographic variations indicate that local factors can either mitigate or amplify these disparities. The findings suggest that improving educational access and addressing barriers to good health among less-educated populations could help reduce these growing inequities.
Funding and Disclosures
The study was funded by various institutes within the National Institutes of Health, including the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Cancer Institute, and others. The researchers declared no competing interests.
Publication Information
The study, titled “Life expectancy by county and educational attainment in the USA, 2000–19: an observational analysis,” was published online in The Lancet Public Health on January 23, 2025. The research was conducted by the Global Burden of Disease US Health Disparities Collaborators.
