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Whenever a new presidential administration arrives in D.C., it’s natural that they promise dramatic policy changes. It’s normal that the breadth and scope of these proposals can make it hard to sort forgettable noise from the serious signals of things that are actually likely to happen.

Looks like we’re going to spend 2025 debating which bathrooms different kids should use when they need to relieve themselves and whether we really want to follow through on the administration’s plans to allow armed immigration enforcement actions on school campuses. Jury’s still out on whether or not the U.S. Department of Education survives the year — let alone Trump’s entire term. 

One thing’s certain, though: the biggest issue facing U.S. public schools will remain fiscal. As Chad Aldeman has repeatedly noted here at The 74, falling enrollment is a problem for local education leaders across the country — and most haven’t confronted the ensuing budget problems because those make for difficult politics. 

This is only going to get worse: the Biden administration’s pandemic recovery funds are fully winding down and increased public investment in private school choice programs is putting pressure on public K–12 budgets in some places. What’s more, falling birth rates were already producing drops in U.S. K–12 enrollment in communities across the country.

Long story short: whatever’s happening in national education politics, the central education dilemma for many school districts will be trying to attract and retain students so that they don’t face stiff cuts in state and federal funding. A new Urban Institute brief suggests that pre-K programs could be a useful tool in that effort. 

The analysis explores whether Washington, D.C.’s universal pre-K system for 3- and 4-year-olds could be part of the reason why “the District of Columbia (DC) stands out as one of the few jurisdictions that did not experience declines in public K–12 enrollment between fall 2019 and fall 2021.” 

D.C.’s pre-K program was a leader that just preceded an Obama-era wave in public early education investments. It launched in 2008 as part of District of Columbia education reforms designed to improve outcomes and raise enrollment. This was years ahead of similar efforts in San Antonio, Seattle, New York, and beyond. 

The program isn’t just old — it’s unusually comprehensive compared to its peers. The city spends more per pre-K student than any U.S. state, serves both 3- and 4-year-olds and integrates the large majority of its programs into K–12 campuses. That means that pre-K students generally continue into kindergarten (and first grade, and beyond) classrooms that are overseen by the same leaders who run their pre-K programs. This permits for greater instructional alignment from early childhood into elementary school — and, to drop the jargon, it makes parents’ lives way easier. 

Using D.C. enrollment lottery data, the Urban Institute paper found that students who attended pre-K as 3-year-olds before the pandemic “were 9.8 percentage points more likely to remain enrolled” in D.C. schools between 2020 and 2022 than children who did not attend. This was especially true for students who were in kindergarten or first grade during the pandemic period. Further, the enrollment boost effect was particularly strong for D.C. pre-K alumni from low-income communities; they were 25% more likely to remain enrolled, compared to students from higher-income communities

“Public prekindergarten — especially when starting as early as 3 years old — can promote student persistence by providing early exposure to a classroom setting and fostering foundational academic and nonacademic skills,” the researchers conclude. 

The Urban Institute’s findings also echo prior studies indicating that D.C.’s pre-K program has impacts well beyond improving children’s development and well-being. Others have found that it shapes a wider range of families’ decisions and behaviors. It offers a full-day schedule that matches the city’s K–12 schools and their academic calendars. A 2018 study linked this breadth of coverage to increases in maternal employment — that is, D.C.’s pre-K investments made it easier for moms to work. 

As noted above, the program is relatively well aligned with research on quality early education, so it’s no surprise that it’s producing a host of positive effects for kids and families. I’ve written about the program many times from that standpoint. 

But I’m also a father of three D.C. pre-K alumni, and as their primary caregiver (over most of our parenting journey), I’ve gotta tell you: these effects almost assuredly underestimate the program’s benefits. D.C. pre-K has saved our family immeasurable money and stress over the years. By the end of the pandemic — when our youngest was due to enroll — we knew that leaving the city for almost any other community would have meant paying for two more years of private early childhood care. In D.C., average child care costs are more than $20,000 per child, and costs in nearby towns are only slightly lower — staying in the city saved us tens of thousands of dollars. 

Shoot, without the four years (two per child) of child care savings D.C. pre-K had bestowed upon us when we enrolled our two older children, we might never have gone ahead and chosen to have that third kid at all. 

Which, incidentally, brings us back to 2025 education politics and how the country’s shrinking pool of children is going to produce smaller K–12 enrollments and school budgets. While other urban school districts are shrinking, D.C. schools set a new enrollment record last fall, with a third consecutive year of enrollment growth bringing the total to just shy of 100,000 students. 

If civil rights advocates are able to stop the administration’s from sending ICE agents to K–12 campuses and making LGBTQ students more vulnerable to discrimination at school, leaders curious about how to better support families in having children — and enrolling them in public schools — might take a look outside the White House at the innovative pre-K program surrounding them.

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