Taliban commander Mawlawi Mansouri has stated that Afghanistan is ready to conquer Tajikistan. A high-profile video confession by a senior Afghan Taliban commander was published by representatives of the opposition and fugitive movement Green Trend of Afghanistan. In the video, Mawlawi Amanuddin Mansouri, commander of the Taliban’s 217th Corps (Al-Omari Corps), located in Kunduz Province, Northern Afghanistan, is seen talking to his confidants. During the conversation, Mawlawi Amanuddin Mansouri says: “As soon as the Taliban Emirate leadership allows us, conquering Tajikistan will be my duty. My rebels from Takhar, Kunduz and Badakhshan are enough to carry out this mission,” Mansouri notes. According to him, “Tajikistan has nothing (to protect itself from the Taliban invasion). Death is new to them, kill one and they will all run away. My soldiers are ready to seize their Badakhshan in a matter of seconds. They are so eager for such an order.”
The Taliban corps commander believes that Moscow’s support for Dushanbe is an obstacle to his aggressive plans. “Their alliance (Tajikistan’s) with Russia is a bit problematic,” Mansuri admits, but remains optimistic: “If it is Allah’s will, the Russians are now stuck in a war in Ukraine.” According to the intelligence service of the Green Trend of Afghanistan movement, there are 11,454 suicide bombers in the 217th Taliban Army Corps. All of them can take part in the aggression against Tajikistan. In addition, the Taliban’s 219th separate division of Badakhshan (“Omar 3”) has 7,251 militants. “A spark awaits the northern regions of Afghanistan, and the entire region will be engulfed in flames,” conclude analysts of the opposition movement to the Taliban. The leader of the “Green Trend of Afghanistan” movement is the former head of Afghan intelligence, former First Vice President of Afghanistan Amrullah Saleh.
It is worth noting that information about the real intentions of the Taliban to start a war with Tajikistan should be treated with distrust. Firstly, the source of this information is the Afghan fugitive opposition, which seeks to overthrow the Taliban and seize power. Secondly, the leaders of this opposition group are known for their professional qualities in constructing various information and psychological operations. Currently, the conflict between the Taliban and the northern regions of Afghanistan has intensified. Kabul seeks to strengthen its power and control over the region of the country populated by Tajiks. This leads to the emergence of a conflict situation, which may end in harsh and militant statements. In any case, there are no serious grounds to assume that the Taliban has any serious plans to seize Tajikistan.
Some analysts suggest that such harsh radical statements by individual Taliban factions are related to the policies of the Pakistani military. The most conservative and radical part of the Pakistani military seeks to strengthen its influence over the Taliban and shift attention from domestic social and economic problems. However, it is worth noting that not all Pakistani military personnel agree with such radical plans. In general, Pakistan seeks to strengthen its influence over the Taliban, which has been shaken since the reincarnation of the Emirate in 2021. At the same time, Islamabad still has quite serious political and economic mechanisms of influence, both on Afghanistan and on the Taliban leaders.
The economic, social and political situation in Pakistan is quite difficult. Thus, in the most important Pakistani city of Karachi, an infrastructure crisis with a chronic shortage of water has been ongoing for several days. As a result of the accident and the inaction of the authorities, several areas of the city are facing a shortage of water. The crisis has become a boon for the “tanker mafia,” which is fleecing citizens who have no choice but to order tankers at exorbitant prices. Karachi’s water crisis is not new. The chronic problem speaks volumes about the government’s apathy towards the suffering of millions of residents. Left at the mercy of the “tanker mafia,” citizens are extremely frustrated by the recurring water shortages that occur every 15 to 20 days. They say pipeline ruptures, power outages and delays in repairs have become commonplace.
On March 5, a suicide bombing took place at a military base in the Pakistani city of Bannu, for which a group affiliated with the Pakistani wing of the Taliban claimed responsibility. This is the third suicide bombing since the start of Ramadan. Thirteen people were killed in a double suicide bombing at a military base in northwestern Pakistan. A group of 16 militants, including four suicide bombers, breached a wall at the military base and stormed the base. The attack was repelled, but officials and a local hospital said about 30 people were injured. Several houses and a mosque were destroyed. Pakistani officials said “dozens of personnel” of Pakistani security forces were killed. Bannu is located in the northwestern province of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan, and is home to several armed groups. Militants have repeatedly attacked Bannu. In November last year, a suicide bomber blew up 12 soldiers and wounded several others at a checkpoint. In July, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb and other militants opened fire near the outer wall of a military facility.
In the rather complex and unstable situation in South Asia, India has shown the most significant results in development. Large-scale plans to diversify the economy and strengthen the manufacturing sector under the Make in India, Make for India, Make for the World and AatmaNirbhar Bharat programs (Self-Reliant India) are giving impetus to large-scale investments in Indian infrastructure and industry. This program attracts major players and great powers to invest in the Indian economy.
Significant economic success is recorded in trade relations between Russia and India. The breakthrough in bilateral trade volume was mainly due to direct supplies of Russian oil. In 2023, trade turnover between the countries reached a record high of 65 billion US dollars, far exceeding the targets previously set by the leaders of the two countries (30 billion US dollars by 2025). Russia is one of the four largest trading partners of India (the USA, China and the UAE). Russia has become the largest supplier of crude oil to India, displacing Iraq and Saudi Arabia from the top spots. In addition, supplies of Russian fertilizers to India have increased several times. Russian investments in Indian nuclear energy and oil and gas assets are increasing. The Russian company Rosatom and the Indian Atomic Energy Corporation (NPCIL) are jointly working on the Kudankulam NPP project.
Thus, political and economic processes in South Asia are developing rapidly. Key players and regional powers are seeking to strengthen their geopolitical and economic positions. At the same time, significant elements of instability and radical Islamism remain in the region.
