Huge tornado near Omaha, Nebraska during a tornado outbreak on April 26th, 2024. (Photo by Jonah Lange on Shutterstock)
In a nutshell
- Rural residents demonstrate higher levels of tornado preparedness than urban dwellers, contradicting assumptions about resource limitations in rural areas.
- Only 47% of participants correctly understood what a “tornado warning” means, highlighting a critical gap in public comprehension of severe weather terminology.
- People with prior tornado experience need less warning time to prepare effectively, while those without such experience require more time yet still prepare less adequately.
LINCOLN, Neb. — As severe weather sweeps across the Midwest, a recent study has uncovered a troubling knowledge gap among the public when it comes to tornado alerts. Many Americans remain confused about the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning, a misunderstanding that could prove fatal in an emergency.
The urgency of this issue has been magnified by recent tornado warnings issued across parts of the central U.S., where violent storms have already caused widespread damage. Researchers from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) say the confusion surrounding these alerts could lead to delayed reactions, putting lives at even greater risk.
Study Reveals Alarming Gaps in Public Understanding
Dr. Cory Armstrong, a journalism professor at UNL’s College of Journalism and Mass Communications, has been studying how individuals interpret and react to severe weather alerts. Her research, published in the Journal of Extreme Events, found that only about half of study participants could accurately define what a tornado warning means.
“As a professional communicator, I am fascinated by how individuals receive and respond to various messaging,” Armstrong said in a statement. “People assume that everyone understands severe weather alerts, but our research shows that is not always the case.”
This misunderstanding is particularly dangerous in states prone to tornadoes, such as Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky, where quick action can mean the difference between survival and tragedy.
The Critical Difference: Watch vs. Warning
With tornado season ramping up, meteorologists and emergency management officials are emphasizing the need for the public to understand the key distinction between a tornado watch and a tornado warning:
Tornado Warning – Take action immediately. A tornado has been detected on radar or visually confirmed. Seek shelter in a safe place without delay.
Tornado Watch – Be prepared. Conditions are favorable for tornadoes to develop. This is a heads-up to stay alert and review safety plans.
“It is interesting with severe weather alerts, because there is a general assumption that everyone knows exactly what they mean and how you should respond. Through this research, we’ve found that is not necessarily true,” Armstrong says.
A significant and deadly severe weather outbreak unfolded on Friday, March 14, 2025, affecting multiple states across the Midwest and Southeast. The storm system produced numerous tornadoes, resulting in fatalities and widespread damage.
In Missouri, at least three people lost their lives due to tornadoes. Two fatalities were reported in the Bakersfield area of Ozark County, and another occurred in Butler County. Communities such as Rolla, Hartville, and areas outside St. Louis experienced significant damage, including overturned semi-trucks and damaged structures.
The severe weather threat continues into Saturday, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a rare Level 5 out of 5 risk for parts of the South. This indicates a high likelihood of strong, long-track tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Residents in the affected regions are advised to stay alert and follow updates from local authorities.
Forecasting Severe Weather and Tornadoes
While meteorologists can detect tornadic activity with increasing accuracy, their warnings are only effective if people understand them and take appropriate action. But what influences whether someone heeds a tornado warning? Does living in a rural versus urban area make a difference? Do those with previous tornado experience respond differently? And perhaps most crucially, how well do people even understand what a “tornado warning” actually means?
Armstrong’s research, which surveyed 679 residents across four states in America’s tornado-prone mid-South region, reveals insights that could literally save lives. The sample was predominantly female (71.2%) and white (74.2%), with a median age of 36-45 years. Most participants (57%) had lived in their communities for less than 10 years.
To measure preparedness, participants were asked about 21 different protective behaviors—from obtaining bottled water to securing propane tanks to preparing emergency communication plans. For prior experience, they reported how frequently in the past five years they had witnessed extreme weather, seen storm damage, remained in place during severe weather, taken shelter, or heard storm sirens.
When it comes to understanding tornado warnings, the confusion is substantial. As mentioned, according to the National Weather Service, a “tornado warning” means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar, indicating imminent danger. However, only 12% of participants provided this full definition correctly. Another 35% captured part of the definition, but a troubling 14% confused “warning” with “watch.”
This simple misunderstanding could mean the difference between seeking shelter immediately or continuing normal activities during a life-threatening situation.
Perhaps the most intriguing finding involves the interaction between prior experience and warning lead time. People with more tornado experience reported higher levels of preparatory activities regardless of warning time. However, there was a striking interaction: those with extensive experience performed better with less warning time (15 minutes or less), while those with limited experience needed more time to adequately prepare.
This suggests that living through tornado events creates a kind of “preparedness efficiency”—people who’ve experienced tornadoes before have likely developed mental shortcuts and emergency protocols that allow them to act quickly when minutes count.
The average lead time for tornado warnings is approximately 13 minutes, according to previous research. For experienced individuals, this appears adequate. For the inexperienced, it may not be enough—a concerning finding given that those crucial minutes can’t simply be extended at will.
The study also highlighted the importance of clear, concise messaging in weather warnings. With only minutes to act, every second counts. Confusion over terminology or unclear instructions can waste precious time.
For residents in tornado-prone areas, the message is clear: preparation should start long before a warning is issued. Having a safety plan, identifying a secure shelter, and being ready to act swiftly can make all the difference when seconds count. For newcomers to regions where tornadoes are a regular threat, taking the time to learn about storm risks and proper safety measures is a crucial step in protecting lives.
Yet, a major challenge remains for meteorologists and emergency managers—ensuring that every individual, from lifelong residents to recent arrivals, understands the critical difference between a tornado watch and warning. How can we bridge the gap between those familiar with severe weather and those experiencing it for the first time? More importantly, how can public messaging be improved to convey the urgency of a tornado warning in a way that prompts immediate action?
As severe weather patterns continue to evolve, refining warning systems and expanding public education efforts will be key to minimizing injuries and saving lives. The goal is simple: no one should be caught off guard when disaster strikes.
Tornado Watch vs. Warning: Know the Difference
Tornado Watch
What it means: Conditions are favorable for tornado development in your area. A tornado is possible.
What to do:
- Stay tuned to local radio, TV, or NOAA weather radio for updates
- Review your family’s emergency plan and know where your shelter area is
- Charge your mobile devices in case power is lost
- Secure or bring in outdoor items that could become projectiles
- Be prepared to act quickly if conditions worsen
- Check emergency supplies (flashlights, batteries, first aid kit, water)
Tornado Warning
What it means: A tornado has been spotted or indicated by weather radar. There is imminent danger to life and property.
What to do:
- Take immediate action! You may have only minutes to protect yourself
- Move to your pre-designated shelter area (basement, storm cellar, or interior room on the lowest floor)
- Stay away from windows, doors, and outside walls
- If in a vehicle, mobile home, or temporary structure, get out immediately and go to a sturdy building or storm shelter
- If caught outside with no shelter, lie flat in a nearby ditch or depression and cover your head with your hands
- Do not get under an overpass or bridge
- Do not try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle
Remember: The average lead time for tornado warnings is only about 13 minutes. Don’t delay taking protective action!
Paper Summary
Methodology
The study employed a quantitative survey approach to examine how people prepare for and respond to tornado warnings. Researchers recruited 679 adult participants from 55 counties across four states (Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri) all within the coverage area of the National Weather Service in Memphis. This region represents a population of approximately 2.7 million people who regularly face tornado threats. Participants completed a 40-question survey between April and May 2021, responding to questions about their tornado preparedness activities, prior experiences with severe weather, and understanding of weather terminology. The researchers measured preparedness through a 21-item scale asking how frequently participants engaged in activities like storing water, checking flashlights, or preparing emergency contacts. To analyze the relationship between geographic location, prior experience, and warning lead time, the researchers used Multiple Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) statistical tests. They also conducted qualitative content analysis of open-ended responses where participants defined a “tornado warning” in their own words.
Results
The research revealed several significant patterns in tornado preparedness behaviors. Rural residents showed higher levels of protective actions compared to urban residents, contradicting some previous assumptions about rural preparedness. Individuals with more prior experience with tornadoes (those who had witnessed extreme weather, seen storm damage, or taken shelter during events in the past five years) demonstrated significantly higher preparedness behaviors than those with less experience. Particularly notable was the interaction between warning lead time and prior experience: experienced individuals reported higher preparedness levels with minimal warning time (15 minutes or less), while inexperienced individuals performed worse even with longer warning periods. The study found no main effect for warning lead time alone, suggesting that experience is the more crucial factor. When asked to define a “tornado warning,” only 12% of participants provided the complete correct definition (a tornado has been sighted or indicated by radar), while 35% captured part of the definition. Concerningly, 14% confused warnings with watches, and another 6.5% defined warnings incorrectly in other ways—meaning over 20% of respondents fundamentally misunderstood this critical safety term.
Limitations
The study acknowledges several limitations that should be considered when interpreting the results. The research was conducted specifically in the mid-South region of the United States, an area prone to frequent tornado activity, making generalization to other regions or types of disasters potentially problematic. Data collection occurred outside of tornado season, which might have affected participants’ recollection of severe weather events and their responses. The sample demographics skewed heavily toward female (71.2%) and white (74.2%) participants, limiting the diversity of perspectives. Additionally, the research didn’t analyze how demographic factors like gender, race, or socioeconomic status might influence tornado preparedness behaviors. The study also relied on self-reported behavior rather than observed actions during actual tornado events, which may not accurately reflect how people would truly behave during an emergency. Finally, the research examined only portions of the theoretical frameworks (RISP and PADM models) rather than testing these models comprehensively.
Discussion and Takeaways
The study’s findings have substantial implications for how emergency managers and meteorologists communicate about tornado threats. The confusion between tornado watches and warnings—terms that have been used for decades—suggests a need for clearer, more effective terminology or educational campaigns. The interaction between experience and warning response time indicates that people without prior tornado experience may benefit from more detailed guidance about preparation steps, possibly including simulations or detailed action plans. Rural residents’ higher preparedness levels suggest they may have community-specific practices worth studying and potentially adapting for urban contexts. The research also contributes to theoretical understanding by demonstrating that the Protective Action Decision Model may involve more complex interactions between factors than previously recognized. The findings suggest that comprehension of warning messages significantly impacts risk assessment and protective behavior—supporting both the RISP and PADM theoretical models while adding nuance to how these factors interact.
Funding and Disclosures
The research was supported by a $15,000 grant, though the specific funding source was not identified in the published paper as it was withheld for blind review purposes. No conflicts of interest were disclosed by the researcher. The study received appropriate Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval before data collection began, indicating that ethical research standards were maintained throughout the project.
Publication Information
The study titled “Are You Watching or Warning? The Role of Comprehension, Warning Lead Time and Prior Experience On Individual Preparation of Tornadic Events” was authored by Dr. Cory Armstrong from the College of Journalism & Mass Communications at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. It was published in the Journal of Extreme Events (Volume 10, Numbers 1-4) on May 10, 2024. The paper was initially received on November 14, 2022, accepted on December 8, 2023, and published under an Open Access license (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0). The DOI for the paper is 10.1142/S234573762441001X.
