Commentaries at the San Antonio Report provide space for our community to share perspectives and offer solutions to pressing local issues. The views expressed in this commentary belong to the author alone.
Over ten years ago, I wrote an article for the San Antonio Report titled “Mr. Mayor, Please Stop Calling San Antonio the 7th Largest City.” As many know, our high ranking on city size is built on a technicality — a city boundary that encompasses our whole metro area.
No, we are not really bigger than San Francisco or Boston. In fact, we are 24th in metro population (if you generously include New Braunfels) but no one can resist the allure of being a top 10 city. It makes us feel good. And important.
Now there is a new population metric making the rounds. San Antonio was declared the fastest-growing city in the U.S. in 2023. Again, while technically true, take a look at this table released in the official city budget:
You will quickly see a problem.
Yes, we grew fast in 2023, but we are still smaller than we were in 2019. It’s hard to get clear answers of what is going on here, but most likely our big drop in 2020 was a data collection error due to COVID-19. But the low base makes our recent gains more a bounceback in data accuracy than actual growth. Our overall population seems to be relatively flat.
If there is one assumption everyone has about San Antonio, it is that we are going to grow much bigger. I hope so!
But, Texas grew very quickly during this time, and we did not get our share. We need to be careful not to rest on our laurels.
The famed urbanist Alain Bertaud states plainly how cities grow over the long run: “Cities are labor markets. People go to cities to find a good job.”
This simple concept gives rise to worry. Yes, many companies are moving to Texas. But, no question San Antonio is not getting its share. In fact, since the pandemic, it is hard to find notable relocations to San Antonio (DeLorean does not count!). Meanwhile, Austin won 66 companies, Dallas 33 and Houston 25. Those are big numbers and include some massive companies like Tesla, Charles Schwab and Chevron.
JCB’s new and large manufacturing plant is a notable win and a great mid-skilled job creator, but really, our only large contribution to the era of the “Texas Miracle.” Even worse, many of our main job-creating engines are struggling or leaving: Rackspace is in decline; USAA is quietly repositioning to Phoenix and other cities; Tesoro and Nustar have been sold and are de-emphasizing San Antonio.
Yes, Valero and H-E-B are going strong, but we need a bigger base of employers if we truly want to keep growing. While Greater: SATX is pushing hard, we need our mayor and City Council to make good jobs — and the companies that create them — a top priority in the years ahead. Otherwise, our big growth might turn into stagnation.
