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In a nutshell
- Relationship satisfaction follows a predictable “terminal decline” before breakups, with a gradual decrease followed by a sharp drop beginning 7-28 months before separation.
- Partners who initiate breakups enter the terminal decline phase about a year earlier than those who receive the breakup news, who experience a much steeper drop once they realize what’s happening.
- The time remaining until separation predicts relationship satisfaction better than how long the couple has been together, providing potential insights for when relationship interventions might be most effective.
MAINZ, Germany — Most of us believe relationship endings happen in messy, unpredictable ways—a betrayal discovered, a fight that goes too far, or a slow drift apart. But what if breakups actually follow a mathematical pattern? What if the end of your relationship is as predictable as the phases of the moon?
New research published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology reveals exactly that. Scientists have discovered that failing relationships don’t just randomly deteriorate—they follow a specific two-phase decline that can be measured, tracked, and even predicted with surprising accuracy.
Researchers Janina Bühler from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and Ulrich Orth from the University of Bern analyzed data from four major longitudinal studies across different countries. They found that couples who eventually break up typically experience a mild decline in happiness for years, followed by a dramatic drop in the final months or years before separation.
The Countdown to Breakup
Scientists call this phenomenon “terminal decline,” borrowing a concept previously used to describe how cognitive abilities and happiness deteriorate before death. The research reveals that our romantic relationships follow similar predictable patterns before they end.
The study found that “time-to-separation was a much better predictor of change than time-since-beginning.” While we often think about relationships in terms of how long couples have been together, this research shows that the time remaining until separation tells us more about relationship health.
Perhaps most fascinating is how differently breakup initiators and recipients experience this decline. People who eventually initiate breakups start becoming dissatisfied much earlier—about a year before the actual split. Meanwhile, their partners often remain relatively happy until just months before the end, when their satisfaction plummets dramatically.
Many people intuitively sense when their relationship is heading downhill. This research confirms these feelings aren’t just subjective impressions—they reflect a scientific trajectory toward separation that looks remarkably similar across cultures, age groups, and relationship types.
Exploring The Phases of Decline
In the study, researchers tracked thousands of couples over time, measuring their relationship satisfaction annually. They compared people who eventually separated with similar people who stayed together.
The pattern emerged consistently across all four datasets. According to the paper: “The decline prior to separation was divided into a preterminal phase, characterized by a smaller decline, and a terminal phase, characterized by a sharp decline,” the authors write. The major shift between these phases—what researchers call the “transition point”—occurred anywhere from 7 months to 2.3 years before the actual breakup, depending on the study.
The researchers also examined whether overall life satisfaction followed the same trajectory. They found that “terminal decline was less visible in life satisfaction than in relationship satisfaction.” This indicates that while people recognize their relationships are deteriorating, they might already be preparing emotionally for life after the relationship.
If most relationships fade according to this pattern instead of a dramatic, sudden event or spat, is there any hope for relationships already in this spiral? In many cases, the relationship is effectively over long before the actual separation occurs—couples are just living through the terminal phase.
For couples therapists and relationship counselors, these findings could transform how they evaluate troubled relationships. By identifying whether a couple is in the early “preterminal” phase versus the steep “terminal” decline, professionals might better determine which relationships can be saved and which have likely passed the point of no return.
Demographic factors influenced these patterns in interesting ways. The researchers found that “age at separation and marital status explained variance in the effect sizes.” Younger adults showed less dramatic terminal declines than older adults, possibly because younger people expect more relationship transitions.
The study also revealed that “individuals who were the recipients of the separation (in contrast to individuals who initiated the separation) entered the terminal phase later but then decreased more strongly.” This explains why breakups often feel so asymmetrical, with one partner seemingly more prepared than the other.
What This Means For Your Relationship
Many of us stay in declining relationships hoping things will improve. The study, unfortunately, indicates there might be a point of no return—a transition into terminal decline—after which recovery becomes highly unlikely.
For those currently in relationships, the findings offer both caution and hope. On one hand, recognizing the signs of terminal decline might help people make more informed decisions about when to seek help or when to move on. On the other hand, understanding that the steepest decline typically happens only after crossing a specific threshold might encourage couples to address problems before reaching that critical transition point.
The researchers frame it this way: “If unsatisfied couple members are still in the preterminal phase and have not yet reached the transition point, efforts to improve the relationship may be more effective, potentially preventing the onset of the terminal phase and the eventual dissolution of the relationship.”
The study also brings some comfort to those blindsided by breakups. If you’ve ever been shocked when a partner suddenly announced they wanted to separate, the science explains why: they likely crossed into terminal decline months or even years before you did. By the time you recognized the severity of the problems, they had already been mentally preparing for the end.
Like many aspects of human behavior, from birth to cognitive development to aging, romantic relationships appear to follow predictable patterns that can be scientifically observed and mapped. The terminal decline of relationship satisfaction isn’t just a feeling—it’s a measurable phenomenon that operates according to consistent rules across different cultures and contexts.
The study’s authors emphasize couples in rocky relationships should seek help before hitting the point of no return. “It is important to be aware of these relationship patterns,” says Bühler, who works as a couple therapist in addition to being a professor. “Initiating measures in the preterminal phase of a relationship, i.e., before it begins to go rapidly downhill, may thus be more effective and even contribute to preserving the relationship.”
Paper Summary
Methodology
The researchers analyzed data from four longitudinal studies conducted in Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Each study followed thousands of participants for periods ranging from 12 to 21 years, asking them annually about their relationship and life satisfaction. Using a statistical technique called propensity score matching, the researchers paired people who eventually separated with similar people who stayed together based on factors like age, gender, income, education, and personality traits. This allowed them to isolate the effect of approaching separation from other factors that might affect relationship quality. They then analyzed how satisfaction changed as time-to-separation decreased, comparing these patterns with how satisfaction changed based on relationship duration. They used statistical models to identify where the shift from gradual to steep decline occurred.
Results
The research team discovered that relationship satisfaction declined in two distinct phases before couples separated. The first “preterminal” phase showed only a slight decline in satisfaction. After crossing a transition point, couples entered a “terminal” phase with a much steeper decline. This transition occurred between 7 months and 2.3 years before separation, depending on the study. When comparing people who eventually separated with matched controls who stayed together, the researchers found dramatic differences in satisfaction trajectories, particularly during the terminal phase. Time-to-separation predicted relationship satisfaction much better than relationship duration, explaining about twice as much variation in happiness levels. They also found that initiators of breakups entered the terminal phase about a year before separation, while recipients only entered this phase months before, though their decline was then much steeper.
Limitations
The study has several important limitations. All data came from Western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic countries, so the patterns might differ in other cultural contexts where relationship norms and divorce practices vary. The research primarily included participants with relatively stable relationships and moderately high relationship satisfaction, potentially missing patterns in more troubled relationships. Annual assessments limited precision in determining exactly when transitions occurred, especially for relationships that ended shortly after an assessment. Some studies had limited observations in the months immediately before separation. Finally, while the research identified average patterns, individual relationships likely vary substantially in how they deteriorate.
Discussion and Takeaways
The findings demonstrate that relationship endings follow predictable patterns that are better captured by counting backward from separation than forward from the beginning. This suggests relationship deterioration processes are more strongly linked to approaching separation than to how long couples have been together. The two-phase pattern mirrors terminal decline observed before death, suggesting relationship endings follow similar psychological processes as other major life transitions. The research has practical implications for relationship interventions, suggesting efforts to improve relationships might be more effective during the preterminal phase before couples cross the transition point. The different patterns between initiators and recipients highlight how asymmetrical relationship dissolution often is, with one partner frequently disengaging long before the other recognizes the relationship is failing. The research provides empirical support for theories describing breakups as processes rather than events.
Publication Details
This study was conducted by Janina Larissa Bühler from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and Ulrich Orth from the University of Bern. The researchers did not report specific funding sources for this work. They acknowledged Louisa Scheling for helping prepare the datasets used in the analyses. The research was preregistered on July 14, 2023, on the Open Science Framework, and the analysis scripts are publicly available. The study, titled “Terminal Decline of Satisfaction in Romantic Relationships: Evidence From Four Longitudinal Studies,” was published online on March 20, 2025, in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000551).
