Fighters walk in the Syrian presidential palace in Damascus’ Mount Qasyoun on December 8, 2024, after Islamist-led rebels declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

BEIRUT — Hopes are high that year 2025 will be one of peace in the region after an especially violent 2024.

The fastest developing story, sure to dominate at least the start of the new year, is found in Syria, where leader Bashar al-Assad has been deposed, ending a 50-year family rule. Now, a coalition of rebels are in control of the capital, and the world is watching for how they will shape the nation’s future — and whether democracy or extremism will blossom.

[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2024 and look forward to what 2025 may hold.]

Additionally, this year is expected to reveal to future of Russian and Iranian influence in Syria, specifically the Russian military bases in the country. Will Moscow strike a deal with the rebels to keep Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base as its power projection focal points in the Mediterranean or is 2024 the end of Russian presence in Syria? This remains to be answered and maybe sooner in 2025 than expected.

After Syria itself, the region can be expected to keep a close eye on neighbor Iraq, which was already planning to end the US-led coalition mission there by September 2025.

“To be clear, the United States is not withdrawing from Iraq,” a senior administration official told reporters in September 2024. “We are moving towards the type of productive long-term security relationship that the United States has with partners around the world.”

Nevertheless, this upcoming year might put Baghdad under strain if ISIS and al Qaeda see a resurgence in Syria. Assad’s fall in Damascus also may strain Iran’s influence in Iraq, and could push Iranian-allied militias there to resort to asymmetric threats to compensate their retreat in other countries.

Also in flux as the new year looms is the fate of Southern Lebanon, after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a ceasefire there.

On the Lebanese side, observers can expect the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to be the jewel of 2025, as it will take on a key role in maintaining the ceasefire to the south, but also contend with instability from Syria’s collapse that could mean more stress on Lebanon’s other borders.

On the technical side, I expect international conferences to support the LAF to take place to boost its armament parallel to the increased role entrusted to the military. The military aid is expected mainly from the US, the traditional donor to LAF, France and Arab countries like Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, for their own defense Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can be expected to boost cooperation with Western defense firms through joint ventures, while at the same time they’re likely to keep investing at home to boost domestic industry.

Twenty-twenty-five could bring on fighter jet news, as Saudi Arabia may find its way into the British-Italian-Japanese Global Combat Air Programme, and the UAE may redouble its efforts to join the American F-35 program.

Last but not least, 2025 could see another big push towards normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, something the Biden administration had flirted with accomplishing before Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023 attacks derailed that delicate process.

Additionally Saudi Arabia might be able to seal the defense pact with US where Washington would be committed to defending Saudi territory in case of attack. Whether this pact, which was “very close” back in May, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, will be a prerequisite to normalization with Israel remains to be seen.