From the founding of NATO in 1949, the world balance of power has been centered on the West working to deter aggression of Russia against Western Europe. That alliance, which lasted some 76 years, is now coming apart.
The global balance of power is shifting rapidly due to the new foreign policy direction of the United States under its current President. Besides the policy shift driven by President Trump, there are other reasons for the divergence of the United States and Europe.
NATO was primarily founded to prevent the fall of western Europe to communism. The United States saw its struggle with the now defunct Soviet Union as a life-or-death matter. The 1944 Normandy invasion was a strategic move to prevent Western Europe’s advanced manufacturing capabilities from falling into communist hands, which would have significantly altered the balance of power after World War II. The “Cold War” ended in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall, yet the NATO alliance has continued up to the current time. With this historical backdrop in mind, we now turn to the current shifts in global power dynamics driven by recent U.S. foreign policy changes.
European Spending on Defense Vis a Vis the United States
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has borne the burden of the economic cost of maintaining strong military forces in the defense of Europe. After the fall of the then Soviet Union, the European members of NATO cut their defense pending drastically and shifted funds towards social services and created a quasi-socialist state in their respective home countries. This left the United States as bearing the financial burden of Europe’s defense.
While European countries have increased defense spending, the years of neglect of their defense industries have taken their toll. It will take much more funding to bring the European defense industry online to the point where they can ramp up production of military arms, ammunition and a thousand other things that a standing army needs. Increased defense spending means cutting back on the socials services that Europeans have assumed as a right. Already there has been pushback from the people of Europe.
German farmers in January of 2024 blocked roads with their tractors all over the country protesting the subsidy cut to diesel fuel. And since then, there has been a noticeable drift of support to the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party. Previously the AfD had been frozen out of the decision-making process, but no longer. The CDU is openly working with AfD in immigration reform. The AfD won 20.8 percent of the vote which took place on the 23rd of February 2025, 8 points behind the CDU which won 28.52 percent of the vote. A large part of the AfD supports closer ties with Russia. Many also favor the policy of the establishment of a trade route from SE Asia to Berlin called Ost-Ausschloss. Such a route would require Russia’s assistance and permission.
The Televised Break Between the United States and Ukraine.
The televised spat between the United States and Ukraine highlights the stark difference between old US foreign policy and the new direction under President Trump. By bluntly telling the Ukrainian President that Ukraine should be thankful for American support and actually laying hands on Zelensky in a world televised event, the highly publicized event, nominally for the US and Ukraine to sign an agreement that would have the United States and Ukraine in developing the rare earth mineral deposits in Ukraine. Instead, the meeting blew up on a world televised event with President Trump being sympathetic to the leader of Russia, and the signing of the agreement was cancelled.
An Emergency Meeting in London
After leaving the United States, President Zelensky flew to England where he met with the English Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Shortly thereafter, there was an emergency meeting in London with most of the European leaders, as well as the Foreign Minister from Turkey.
While there have been pledges of military support for Ukraine, no specifics have been released at the time of this writing. There is to be another meeting on the 6th of March for further consultations. It should be noted that the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already declared that the United States is no longer a dependable ally to the security interests of Europe. Chancellor Merz has also opined that NATO might have to be replaced with a different security agreement.
An Opening for China?
Power abhors a vacuum. If the United States continues to pivot towards Russia, Europe will have no choice but to consider turning to China for some sort of understanding. If this should happen, the United States will have lost the support of Europe in its growing confrontation with China. And at the same time risk the Chinese getting permission to place troops in Europe.
If the current trend continues, and the break between the United States and Europe continues to widen, then 50 years from now historians will draw a line that marks the end of the post-war world and the beginning of the new pre-war world.
