By seeking a peace deal with Kurdish militants, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is attempting something momentous that not only aims to end 40 years of violent insurgency inside Turkey but envisions ambitious change across the region.
The call on Thursday by Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K., for his militants to lay down their arms followed months of negotiations and was a well thought out answer to the challenges Mr. Erdogan faces, said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.
At home it could earn Mr. Erdogan the Kurdish support he needs for constitutional changes to give the Turkish leader — who has steadily expanded his power over more than 20 years — another run at the presidency.
Farther afield, ending the conflict with Kurdish groups that are ranged across parts of Iraq, Syria and Turkey would release Turkey and its military of a huge burden. If Kurds in neighboring Syria follow suit, it has the potential to calm a longstanding regional conflict and help stabilize an allied, fledgling government in Damascus.
“This is a historic call,” Ms. Aydintasbas, said of Mr. Ocalan’s appeal. The proposal “has a lot to do with the geopolitical pressures building up in Turkey’s neighborhood, creating a sense of insecurity for both Turks and Kurds,” she said.
“The chaotic start of the Trump administration and the uncertainty about Syria’s future also seem to have made it evident to Ankara that it needs to consolidate on the home front,” Ms. Aydintasbas added, “and there is no better way to do it than a deal with Kurds.”
Mr. Ocalan’s militant group, the P.K.K., “will almost certainly” heed his appeal, she said. It has suffered militarily since attempting to fight urban battles in eastern Turkish cities in 2015 and has largely retreated to strongholds in the mountainous areas of Iraq.
But the Kurdish forces in Syria, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, or S.D.F., were boosted by training and equipment from the Pentagon as they joined the United States in its operations against the Islamic State in Syria.
Turkey has long considered them a terrorist threat aimed at undermining security along its southern border.
Turkey has close ties with the rebel movement Hayat Tahrir al Sham that seized control of Syria in December after ousting the longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. Turkish officials have made it clear that removing or diluting the perceived Kurdish threat on its borders is a priority in its dealings with the new government in Damascus.
Mazloum Abdi, the Kurdish leader of the S.D.F., is a close follower of Mr. Ocalan and will most likely heed his appeal to turn to peaceful, democratic change, Ms. Aydintasbas said.
Mr. Abdi, in comments during an online news briefing on Thursday, said that Mr. Ocalan had informed him about the decision to lay down arms in a letter and had emphasized the value of peace and stability for the whole region.
Mr. Abdi welcomed the initiative, saying that it would resolve Turkey’s security concerns and ease the situation for his own forces in Syria. His priority was his own negotiations with the new government in Damascus, he said.
The idea for a peace agreement was first floated in October by a close political ally of Mr. Erdogan’s, the nationalist politician Devlet Bahceli.
Mr. Erdogan openly backed peace negotiations with the Kurds a decade ago before they broke down disastrously with fierce fighting breaking out in Kurdish cities. Perhaps because of that and lingering uncertainties about whether the plan will stick, he has remained slightly aloof from the peace overtures this time. Neither he nor any of his cabinet reacted to Mr. Ocalan’s call on Thursday.
But his ambitions in the region and beyond are well known. After taking in more than three million Syrian refugees since the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, he had been a strong supporter of the rebel groups fighting against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and he still enjoys close ties with those groups now that they are in government.
At the same time, he has extended Turkey’s military and diplomatic reach into Africa and has offered Syria military training assistance for its army and air support by proposing the positioning of units of the Turkish air force in Syrian bases.
One of Turkey’s concerns is to curb interference from other countries into Syria, including Israel, which has advanced troops into parts of southern Syria and made overtures to the Syrian Kurds.
Mr. Erdogan will be also calculating for political gains at home from peace with the Kurds, who represent an important political force that has sided with a coalition of opposition parties against Mr. Erdogan.
The Kurds have already made clear that they are expecting political and legal safeguards in any deal. They would be likely to demand the release of political prisoners and changes in terrorism legislation and constitutional amendments, Ms. Aydintasbas said.
A deal with the Kurds could allow for constitutional changes that would remove ethnic divisions and give Kurds a devolution of power. It could also give Mr. Erdogan another run at the presidency, his former prime minister Binali Yildirim said in comments made in a speech in the city of Izmir, reported by Turkish media Friday.
“We are surrounded by instability, dangers and threats,” Mr. Yildirim said. “For this, stability, trust and, most importantly, a strong leader are needed. Therefore, the way should be opened for our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to run for president again. The new constitution should also foresee this.”
Safak Timur contributed reporting from Istanbul.
