The first public polling on the full field of candidates for San Antonio’s May 3 mayoral race found former Air Force Under Secretary Gina Ortiz Jones in the lead — but not one of the 27 candidates cracked even 10% support in the crowded race.
Ortiz Jones, who ran for Congress twice as a Democrat, joined the race in December.
She wasn’t included in the previous round of polling from the UTSA Center for Public Opinion Research, conducted in September, which found Councilman John Courage (D9) with a slight advantage.
This month’s survey interviewed 683 likely voters and has a +/- 3.8% margin of error.
It was conducted Feb. 17 through Feb. 20 — immediately after candidate filing closed, but before several big endorsements.
Ortiz Jones took 9.3% in the February survey, while Courage took 7.9% and Councilman Manny Pelaez (D8) took 5.5%.
About 35% of voters surveyed said they were undecided on who they would support, and 20% were unfamiliar with any of the candidates running.
“Familiarity with candidates is low, and so a lot of it will come down to which candidates are able to raise their profile and name recognition over the next several months,” said Bryan Gervais, the center’s director and an associate professor in UTSA’s Department of Political Science and Geography.
Early voting begins April 22 for the May 3 election. If no candidate takes at least 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on June 7.
“It could very well be the case that other candidates outside of the group of seven are able to build their profiles and join or surpass members of this group,” Gervais said.
This year’s large field is due in part to the fact that San Antonio hasn’t had a mayoral race without an incumbent on the ballot since 2009. Mayor Ron Nirenberg is term-limited from seeking reelection this year, and has not endorsed a successor.
Four other candidates took between 3% and 4% support in the UTSA poll: Councilwoman Melissa Cabello Havrda (D6), tech entrepreneur Beto Altamirano, Councilwoman Adriana Rocha Garcia (D4) and former District 10 Councilman Clayton Perry.
Missing from that top tier is former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos, who has raised big money and drew the top position on the ballot.
