Going solely by the headlines and national commentary, it would be easy to believe in both a waning interest in college and plummeting enrollment. Data and evidence, however, paint the opposite picture: Students themselves are telling us they still want to go to college. Consider these four positive data points in the news recently.
First, when we look at Free Application for Federal Student Aid submissions, the high school Class of 2025 seniors’ submissions are running 13 percent ahead of the Class of 2024’s through mid-March. That relative increase is easy to believe given the difficulties with last year’s FAFSA rollout, but with two to three months to go before these seniors become graduates, there’s still time to end up closer to pre-pandemic levels of FAFSA completion nationally (about 54 percent).
FAFSA completion and enrollment have been tightly associated in recent history, so these increases to FAFSA bode well for the fall semester. It’s great work from the Department of Education and the Office of Federal Student Aid to rebound after last year and a credit to the caring, dedicated professionals across the country who help students and families navigate the maze of college-going milestones every day.
A second positive harbinger comes from the Common App, which reported a 4 percent increase in applications year over year through March 1 across more than 800 member institutions. These increases are being driven by first-generation students (up 13 percent) and those from ZIP codes below the median income (up 8 percent), who have historically enrolled in college at lower rates. Nearly 1.4 million students have already applied through the Common App, and that number will only grow between now and the fall.
Third, despite the FAFSA completion declines from the Class of 2024, 18-year-olds around the country defied expectations by seeing their fall semester enrollments increase by 3.4 percent, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Over all, freshman enrollment increased 5.5 percent over the previous year, extending gains in enrollment following the pandemic. The largest enrollment gains came from students from neighborhoods in the lowest income quintile.
And finally, those enrollees are entering institutions that, on average, have never been better at producing college graduates than they are now. The college completion rate for the Class of 2018 reached 61.1 percent, marking the highest level of the cohorts tracked by the NSCRC. Gaps in completion across multiple student demographics persist, but we are making progress across these groups and different institutional categories.
In sum, none of the figures above are the signs of a dying sector eschewed by students. They’re signs of demand, and this is a great problem for the United States to have. By 2031, an estimated 72 percent of U.S. jobs will require postsecondary education or training. As of 2023, just 44 percent of working-age Americans had a postsecondary degree or credential of value. To strengthen the talent pipeline, we need all the learners currently interested in college and more. Students are doing their part. We need to support them.
Support means investing in need-based federal and state financial aid programs. It means making sure students have access to high-quality postsecondary advising that helps them identify their next, best step for education after high school. And it means keeping the doors to higher education open—especially for those furthest from opportunity who face challenges along the way and who come from a wide variety of places and circumstances across the United States. Postsecondary education has always been a public good and an economic engine. As the American Council on Education has exhorted, higher education builds America. Students still believe in its promise. We should, too.
